Shell Shares Energy Scenario 2050 With China

Mr. van der Veer and his senior management members come to in Beijing to share the Energy Scenarios to 2050, a data-based report on two possible outcomes of the world’s energy future, with Chinese officials of National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), top Chinese think-tank scholars as well as Chinese media.

Mr. van der Veer meets with Chinese Vice Premier Li Keqiang and NDRC Vice Chairman Zhang Guobao, shares with them the Energy Scenarios. They also exchange views on issues of common interests.

The Energy Scenarios to 2050, subtitled An Era of Revolutionary Change, chart two plausible ways the world’s energy picture may evolve over the next half-century. The two scenarios are called Scramble and Blueprints. The world energy and environmental challenges in the given period can be met in a more sustainable way with a common perspective of Blueprints rather than Scramble, according to Shell .

In the Scramble scenario, nations rush to secure energy resources for themselves. The use of locally produced coal and home-grown biofuels increases fast. Taking the path of least resistance, policymakers pay little attention to curbing energy consumption – until supplies run short. Likewise, greenhouse gas emissions are not seriously addressed until major shocks trigger political reactions. Since these responses are overdue, they are severe and lead to energy price spikes and volatility.

The Blueprints scenario is less painful, even if the start is more disorderly. Numerous coalitions emerge to take on the challenges of economic development, energy security, and environmental pollution through cross-border cooperation. Much innovation occurs at the local level, as major cities develop links with industry to reduce local emissions. National governments introduce efficiency standards, taxes, and other policy instruments to improve the environmental performance of buildings, vehicles, and transport fuels.

For the first time Shell is expressing a preference for one of them: Blueprints, although economic growth can be achieved in both scenarios. As the Blueprints present a more integral way of dealing with the challenge, including greenhouse gases, faster uptake of new technology, more focus on energy efficiency / conservation and more stable business environment.

Shell’s finding of “three hard truths”, namely a step change in the rate of growth of energy demand, lack of easy-to-find oil and gas, along with the fact that environmental strains including CO2 emission are increasing, will help world understand the necessity to make the choice.

The Shell report shows that in both scenarios, China represents more than 25 per cent of primary energy demand globally in 2025 and China’s primary energy demand itself quadruples by 2050 compared to the start of this century.

Fossil resources will still represent around 70 per cent of China’s primary energy demand by 2050, with coal as the country’s top energy choice up to the year 2050. Shell believes that a transition is thus inevitable for China to find pathways leading to lower both energy consumption ladder and direct emissions without sacrificing economic growth.

As envisaged by the scenarios, China’s total reliance on coal consumption will be remarkably less in Blueprints than that in Scramble, while China's CO2 emissions per capita from energy will be around 15 per cent lower in Blueprints compared to Scramble, illustrating the benefits of early actions.

“We share insights with governments and other stakeholders where we believe collective action is warranted.” says Mr. van der Veer, “China will play a key role in the world’s energy system.”

Mr. Lim Haw-Kuang, Executive Chairman of Shell Companies in China says. “As a leading international energy company in the world, Shell is committed to helping China address challenges in supply security, energy efficiency and emission reduction,by sharing our technologies in the energy area, such as clean coal technologies, gas and unconventional energy.”

Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050 booklet (PDF, 1.8MB, opens in a new window) (PDF, 1804 KB) - opens in new window

Watch the Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050 video - opens in new window

For more details, visit the Shell Energy Scenarios site

Enquiries:

Shell Companies in China
Liu Xiaowei   + 86 10 65054501 ext. 2849

Notes to Editors:
Shell has been using energy scenarios study since the 1970s. Shell’s scenario teams have produced many long-term global scenarios and energy scenarios, plus all kinds of more focused studies. Shell use such scenarios to link uncertainties about the future to the decisions that need to be made today. The Energy Scenarios to 2050 is the first of Shell’s such studies unveiled to the Chinese public and the newest set of Shell’s long-term energy scenarios for the first time in seven years.

Royal Dutch Shell plc
Royal Dutch Shell plc is incorporated in England and Wales, has its headquarters in The Hague and is listed on the London, Amsterdam, and New York stock exchanges.  Shell companies have operations in more than 130 countries with businesses including oil and gas exploration and production; production and marketing of Liquefied Natural Gas and Gas to Liquids; manufacturing, marketing and shipping of oil products and chemicals and renewable energy projects including wind and solar power. For further information, visit http://www.shell.com

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